You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. At times you have serious doubts whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.
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Saturday, January 9, 2010
On Astrology, Barnum & Forer Effect: How 'Real' Could Astrology Get?
One of the concepts which has annoyed me for a while: Astrology. Horoscopes are nothing new; Google shoves 25 million entries just for the word, and the number is far more perilous with Yahoo! (a whopping 367 million, to be concise). At first sight, this might make astrology appealing and realistic, but hang on; there's a lot more to it.
Carl Sagan, one of the most renowned cosmologists and scientists, speaks of Astrology. Logical pursuits (such as the instance of two twins having dissimilar fate, contrary to astrological principles) tell a story of their own: which often gets way more nasty for astrology freaks.
But wait. I'm pretty much sure everything I saw on that Horoscope TV show that day went perfectly right. So why am I reading all the drivel this kid wrote on his blog? Well, it's called the Barnum and Forer Effects. I know a lot about you:
Well, don't you have the urge to call me psychic? Let me give it straight: almost every one else does. This turns up to be a live and kicking example of the Barnum Effect. These come in News columns every single day, and most of us are like, OMG. So how do these work? Let me explain. They seem to trick our senses by convincing us that it's all personalized, and works only for you. We try to read it with a deal of faith at the back of our head: and even if the predictions wouldn't really show up, we tend to make sure it does. For an instance, consider someone writing a test. He gets his hand on the daily horoscope column, and it turns out that 'Success awaits him' that particular day. He aces the test, and by the end of the day, we have another devout horoscope fanatic. What really happens? Well, the horoscope pumps deal of confidence, which turns to make it a pretty day. Well, the real problem is... Horoscopes aren't always that optimistic. Had it been something which boiled to 'Misery awaits you', it would have been cats and dogs for the report card. Drivel? See for yourself, the Derren Brown style. (The link will direct you to a Youtube video, logged by 777Skeptic.)
This was, infact, done first by Psychologist (and not psychic, please) Bertram Forer in the year 1948. The Forer effect accounts for the tendency of people to perceive sets of statements highly accurate and customized, even if they apply to numerous other people with their inimitable personalities and experiences.
Forer gave this personality test to several of his students, and had the analysis rated from 0 to 5, 5 being the most accurate. 4.26 on the average, believe me. Over the years, this was done over and over again, with the accuracy hovering over 4.2 (or 84%) till date.
So the next time you see anything astrological, you know what to do.
This is Nasim, over and out.
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